Europe’s EV Leasing Model Facing Strain

Leasing firms in Europe are grappling with increasing challenges as they face declining resale values for electric vehicles (EVs).

These firms, essential to the region’s auto market, have doubled EV lease prices over the last three years.

The overall vehicle leasing market in Europe, which includes electric vehicles, is projected to grow by approximately US$12.17bn from 2023 to 2028. 

Meanwhile, the share of electric vehicles in the European leasing market is rapidly increasing, with EVs accounting for more than 20% of all new leased vehicles as of 2023. 

Industry executives warn that a rushed shift to all-electric fleets could drive these companies out of the market.

The pivotal role of leasing companies

In Europe, leasing companies play a critical role, with 60% of new cars being leased, according to calculations by environmental group Transport & Environment. The proportion is even higher for EVs, estimated at around 80%.

Dataforce, a market research firm, also revealed that 60% of new EVs in 16 European markets, including Germany, Britain, France and Spain, are bought by corporate fleets and commercial buyers, who predominantly use leasing. Of the remaining EV sales to private buyers, about half are also leased.

In markets lacking EV subsidies for private buyers, corporate dominance is more evident. For example, in Britain and Belgium, individuals accounted for just 23% and 8% of new EV purchases, respectively, in 2023.

Now, the leasing industry has been hit hard by plummeting resale values for EVs.

Several factors, including price cuts by Tesla, concerns about charging infrastructure and battery life and an influx of cheaper Chinese EVs, have driven second-hand prices down since a peak in October 2022.

Autovista data shows that in early July, EV resale values in Germany were 24% below pre-pandemic levels, while in Britain, they were 30% lower. This contrasts sharply with petrol models, which remained about 15% more expensive in both markets.

“If we were pushed very, very hard, that everything has to be electric too soon...my shareholders will say ‘we don’t want to take the risk,’ and we’d be out of the market,” comments Tim Albertsen, CEO of Ayvens, one of Europe’s largest auto leasing firms.

“Let’s be honest, without us, who will take the risk?”

Leasing firms have responded by more than doubling EV lease prices. For instance, data from the German think-tank CAR Center Automotive Research shows that in August 2021, a lease for a €45,000 (US$50,000) EV cost €284 (US$315) per month, compared to €473 (US$525) for a similar fossil-fuel model. Now, the cost for the EV has jumped to €621 (US$690), while the petrol car lease has dropped to €468 (US$520).

The future of EV leasing in Europe

The European Commission is considering measures to accelerate EV adoption by corporate fleets, which could include mandatory EV sales targets.

This prospect worries leasing firms, who fear it would exacerbate their existing resale risks.

“The larger the share of EVs in their portfolios becomes, the bigger this problem is going to be,” adds Richard Knubben, Director General of Leaseurope, a Brussels-based umbrella body for car leasing and rental groups.

The European Commission’s 'Greening corporate fleets' consultation, which explored possible measures to boost EV adoption, concluded on July 8.

Brussels-based Transport & Environment is pushing for a mandate requiring Europe’s large corporate fleets and leasing companies to go 100% electric by 2030.

“Simply put, prices would go up,” says Bart Beckers, Deputy CEO at Arval.

“That would discourage corporate fleets from continuing to lease.”

As the debate continues, the future of Europe’s EV transition hangs in the balance, with leasing companies at the centre of the unfolding challenge.

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