Critical Materials: A New Source for US$110bn Market by 2045

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Critical Materials: A New Source for US$110B Market by 2045
Secondary sources like end-of-life EVs are becoming vital for recovering critical materials. IDTechEx predicts US$110bn in annual recoveries by 2045

As industries increasingly rely on advanced technologies, the demand for critical materials has skyrocketed. However, the surge comes with challenges, including supply chain vulnerabilities and environmental concerns.

Secondary sources, such as end-of-life automotive equipment, EVs, e-waste and decarbonised energy technologies, are emerging as valuable reservoirs of critical materials to address these issues.

According to IDTechEx's latest report, Critical Material Recovery 2025-2045: Technologies, Markets, Players, this burgeoning market is expected to recover over US$110bn in critical materials annually by 2045, equating to more than 3.3 million tonnes of material.

Annual value of critical material recovery market from 2025-2045. Source: IDTechEx

The Rise of Secondary Sources in Critical Material Recovery

The IDTechEx report highlights the importance of secondary sources in mitigating global material supply risks. Critical materials like lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare-earth elements, platinum group metals and semiconductors are essential in modern technology.

However, their highly localised supply chains present significant risks to global economies. The growing pressure to secure these materials has led to a surge in interest in secondary sources, which offer an alternative to the traditional mining of primary resources.

Dr Jack Howley, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx

Dr Jack Howley, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx, explains: "The concentration of critical materials in devices and equipment due to global megatrends in digitalisation across various sectors makes secondary sources increasingly attractive.

"As more critical material-containing equipment reaches the end of its life cycle, the secondary source stream becomes even more valuable."

The Technology Behind the Recovery

The report delves into the technical innovations driving critical material recovery, focusing on four key segments:

  • Lithium-ion battery technology metals
  • Rare-earth elements
  • Platinum group metals
  • Semiconductors 

These technologies largely adapt to those used in primary mineral processing but require modifications to handle the complex mixtures found in secondary materials.

Critical material extraction and recovery technologies and key critical material market segments covered in the report. Source: IDTechEx

Jack emphasises: "The challenge lies in repurposing existing extraction technologies to efficiently process these secondary sources, which often contain a mix of critical materials, plastics, adhesives, and low-value metals."

The report evaluates 13 critical material extraction and recovery technologies and offers case studies on their commercial applications in secondary sources.

Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

The recovery of platinum group metals (PGMs) from secondary sources is expected to dominate the market in 2025. However, the increasing volume of EVs reaching the end of their life cycle will shift the focus towards lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare-earth elements.

The report forecasts that the critical material recovery market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% from 2025 to 2045, driven by the consolidation of critical materials in decarbonised energy and transport technologies.

Jack adds: "As the EV market matures, the recovery of materials from batteries and drive motor magnets will represent the overwhelming majority of recoverable value." The report also comprehensively analyses key market players, growth opportunities and evolving value chains within the secondary source market.

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A Comprehensive Resource for Industry Stakeholders

The IDTechEx report, Critical Material Recovery 2025-2045: Technologies, Markets, Players, is an essential resource for industry stakeholders. It offers in-depth market intelligence, covering emerging secondary source recovery technologies, market segmentation and key players.

The report provides a 20-year market forecast, with detailed analyses of each segment's limitations, methodologies and price assumptions.

By leveraging IDTechEx's extensive expertise in critical advanced materials, sustainability and recycling technologies, the report offers a roadmap for navigating the evolving landscape of critical material recovery. It underscores the growing importance of secondary sources in securing a sustainable future for global industries.

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