Gartner: Global EV Adoption to Hit 85 Million by 2025
According to a forecast from Gartner, Inc., by the close of 2025, 85 million EVs—including cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks—are expected to be in use globally. Despite challenges facing the EV market, significant growth is still anticipated, driven by key markets such as China and Europe.
Steady growth amid challenges
According to Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, the EV market has faced several hurdles over the past year, including delayed model launches and infrastructure concerns.
However, despite these obstacles, the global EV fleet is projected to grow significantly, from 64 million units in 2024 to a 33% increase, totalling 85 million by 2025.
"Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur," Jonathan noted. The overestimation led to delays in launching new EV models. Yet, the outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, with 58% of EV sales expected to come from China and 24% from Europe, representing 82% of the world's EV market.
Dominance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
According to Gartner's data, of the 85 million EVs forecasted to be on the road by 2025, 73% will be Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). The number of BEVs is projected to increase by 35% from 2024, totalling almost 62 million units by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow slower, with a projected base of 23 million units by 2025, up 28% from 2024.
Regional Insights: China Leads the Charge
Regionally, China is steadily growing EVs across both regions. Europe's solid regulatory push for sustainability and North America's increasing investment in EV infrastructure will play key roles in this growth.
A Circular Future: Recycling 95% of EV Batteries by 2030
As the number of EVs increases, so does the need for sustainable practices, particularly regarding battery production and recycling. The global demand for EV batteries has put immense pressure on the supply of raw materials, which is becoming a critical concern for automakers.
According to Gartner, by 2030, 95% of EV batteries will be recycled as part of automakers' efforts to mitigate the risks of raw material shortages. Jonathan highlighted the importance of recycling, stating,
"A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing process ... could reduce the need for more mineral excavation."
The EU's push for mandatory battery recycling will significantly alleviate the pressure on natural resources. Recycling reduces the demand for newly mined materials and decreases costs, potentially making EVs more affordable in the long run.
Jonathan elaborated, "Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore."
In addition to economic benefits, battery recycling will help prevent improper disposal, reducing the environmental risks associated with landfills and unethical waste management.
Looking forward
With EV sales forecasted to rise year-over-year and significant progress in battery recycling efforts, the EV market is on the cusp of transformative growth.
While the industry has faced challenges, particularly around supply chains and infrastructure, the combination of regional demand, technological advancements and sustainability initiatives ensures a bright future for EV adoption worldwide.
By 2030, focusing on reducing waste and reusing valuable materials will be critical in meeting the growing demand for EVs and ensuring their commercial viability globally.
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