IDTechEx: Global Analysis of TCO for Autonomous Trucks
The global push for autonomous trucks is gaining momentum, with record-breaking delivery numbers.
Companies worldwide are entering the commercial testing phase, addressing real-world issues like reducing transport costs and optimising Total Cost of Ownership (TCO).
A new IDTechEx report analyses TCO across various levels of autonomy and powertrain types, focusing on key differences between the US and China.
IDTechEx’s analysis, spanning 10 years of operational data, reveals significant differences between US and Chinese markets.
Notably, the purchase cost for non-autonomous trucks (Level 0) in China is about US$70,000, compared to US$114,286 in the US — a 63% difference. This gap stems from China's lower manufacturing costs and economies of scale, driven by high demand and a robust industrial base.
In contrast, when we look at advanced autonomous trucks (Level 2/3), the price difference becomes even more evident. A Level 2 or 3 truck in China costs around US$112,000, whereas in the US, the figure jumps to US$214,286, largely due to the more stringent regulatory and technical requirements in the US.
The price for a Level 4 electric truck further highlights this disparity: US$250,000 in China versus US$450,000 in the US.
Electric trucks are particularly affected by the cost of battery packs, which vary in size and price depending on the vehicle type.
For instance, a medium-duty truck might need a 150 kWh battery, costing more than US$25,000, whereas a heavy-duty truck could require a 400 kWh battery, costing upwards of US$65,000.
China's dominance in the electric vehicle (EV) market, coupled with strong government support, has led to optimised battery material costs and a more efficient supply chain, lowering the overall cost of electric trucks.
Operational costs: US vs China
Operational costs, including fuel and energy, also differ significantly between the two markets.
For traditional trucks, fuel costs in China amount to approximately US$371,429 over the vehicle's lifetime, compared to US$336,576 in the US.
Although fuel prices are lower in China, the country imposes higher fuel taxes, which make up to 48% of the total cost. In contrast, fuel taxes in the US are standardised, contributing to slightly lower overall costs.
The contrast becomes even starker when looking at Level 4 electric trucks. In China, energy costs are about US$141,780, whereas in the US, they are US$177,480. This reflects not only the difference in electricity prices but also the varying levels of infrastructure and charging capabilities in both countries.
China’s superior charging infrastructure, driven by government policies and subsidies, has made it more cost-effective to operate electric trucks.
Electric powertrain advantages
Electric trucks offer long-term cost advantages over traditional internal combustion engines (ICE). One key benefit is the relatively stable cost of electricity, which is less volatile than fossil fuel prices.
Additionally, electric trucks have lower maintenance costs, thanks to the simplicity and reliability of electric motors and battery systems.
IDTechEx projects that by 2030, the price of battery packs will drop to around US$100 per kWh, making electric trucks even more affordable.
As battery technology advances, trucks will benefit from longer-lasting batteries with higher energy density, faster charging times and reduced overall costs.
Beyond direct savings, electric trucks also reduce carbon emissions. This could lead to additional incentives, such as carbon tax reductions or government subsidies, making the total cost of ownership for electric trucks even more attractive. In the US, where electric truck adoption is growing, infrastructure and policy support lag behind China’s, keeping costs higher for now.
China’s strong position in the EV market, alongside government support, means it will likely maintain lower electric truck costs in the short to mid-term, encouraging widespread adoption.
However, as global efforts to promote green energy accelerate, both the US and China will see a shift in the TCO for electric trucks.
IDTechEx's comprehensive analysis shows key differences in TCO for autonomous trucks in the US and China. The report, 'Autonomous Trucks 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts', offers valuable insights into the factors influencing these cost disparities.
It provides a clear overview of how purchase prices, operational costs and electric vehicle adoption are shaping the future of autonomous trucks in both markets.
IDTechEx projects that by 2030, the price of battery packs will drop to around US$100 per kWh, making electric trucks even more affordable. As battery technology advances, trucks will benefit from longer-lasting batteries with higher energy density, faster charging times and reduced overall costs.
Beyond direct savings, electric trucks also reduce carbon emissions. This could lead to additional incentives, such as carbon tax reductions or government subsidies, making the total cost of ownership for electric trucks even more attractive.
In the US, where electric truck adoption is growing, infrastructure and policy support lag behind China’s, keeping costs higher for now.
China’s strong position in the EV market, alongside government support, means it will likely maintain lower electric truck costs in the short to mid-term, encouraging widespread adoption.
However, as global efforts to promote green energy accelerate, both the US and China will see a shift in the TCO for electric trucks.
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