IDTechEx: Transforming the Future of eLCVs
The electrification of light commercial vehicles (eLCVs) is gaining momentum, propelled mainly by government regulations.
According to IDTechEx’s new report, “Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts”, these regulations have already led to eLCVs surpassing 5% of annual LCV sales.
“IDTechEx forecasts that eLCVs will constitute the bulk of the market and total over 11 million units by 2045,” shares Pranav Jaswani, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx.
The growing need for zero-emission logistics
Governments worldwide strive to meet Paris Agreement targets and sustainability goals, driving demand for zero-emission logistics.
“Global demand for light-duty road freight is set to more than double between 2020 and 2050,” says Pranav.
A growing population, rising incomes and an expanding e-commerce industry fuel the surge.
“As such, there is an imminent need to roll out zero-emission logistics solutions,” he emphasises.
While eLCVs remain costlier than their diesel counterparts, governments have taken measures to encourage adoption, such as purchase subsidies, zero-emission zones and bans on fossil fuel LCVs.
Leaders in eLCV adoption
Europe: A legislative trailblazer
“Europe has been the most enthusiastic in legislating LCV emissions out of all the global regions,” asserts Pranav.
The EU’s landmark 2035 ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is a significant driver, with the UK considering advancing its ban to as early as 2030. These policies place mounting pressure on manufacturers and fleet operators to accelerate electrification.
Regulations have already spurred rapid adoption. Many European countries offer purchase grants ranging from $3,270 to $10,900 and major cities impose restrictions on fossil fuel LCVs. “LCV operators are, therefore, forced to use zero-emission models, with any additional upfront cost having to attribute to the cost of doing business,” notes Pranav.
China: A global leader in eLCVs
Despite less aggressive regulations than Europe, China dominates the global eLCV market.
“China is the clear world leader in eLCV adoption,” shares Pranav, citing the country’s robust electrification efforts across mobility sectors. Most major automotive manufacturers have eLCV models in production, making the market highly competitive.
China’s government further reinforces their leadership by discussing a potential ICE vehicle ban and maintaining purchase grants and zero-emission zones. While hybrids are expected to remain part of the mix, the future growth trajectory remains strong.
United States: Catching up
“In stark contrast to Europe and China, there is no combustion engine ban on the horizon for the US market,” observes Pranav.
Historically, the US has lagged in eLCV adoption, with less than 1% penetration. However, progress is underway, driven by initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act 2022.
“This was the first time the federal government provided grants for purchasing or leasing non-combustion LCVs,” notes Pranav. The Act incentivises plug-in hybrids, though IDTechEx predicts these will not dominate long-term due to their limited emissions reductions compared to fully EVs.
The future of eLCVs
“The electrification of LCVs is going to be of critical importance if governments are to meet their stated aims,” emphasises Pranav. With regulation spurring innovation and adoption, IDTechEx projects that eLCV sales will soar, reaching over 11 million units by 2045.
IDTechEx’s report, “Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts”, provides an in-depth analysis of sales trends, key players and the total cost of ownership. “It offers valuable insights into the transformation that lies ahead for the LCV sector,” concludes Pranav.
Explore the latest edition of EV Magazine and be part of the conversation at our global conference series, Sustainability LIVE and Manufacturing LIVE.
Discover all our upcoming events and secure your tickets today.
EV Magazine is a BizClik brand
