Can EVs Help Keep the 1.5°C Climate Goal Within Reach?

A study from Climate Analytics, a non-profit climate science organisation, indicates that the 1.5°C climate target could still be achievable.

This contradicts other analyses from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and other climate modelling studies that suggest the goal is no longer viable.

Emissions targets and electrification

The report from Climate Analytics suggests that with aggressive fossil-fuel phase-out policies and the swift uptake of carbon removal technologies global warming could peak at 1.7°C before 2050 and then fall to 1.5°C by 2100.

This contrasts with the UNEP's Emissions Gap Report which finds that current trajectories make exceeding 1.5°C inevitable within the next decade.

For the transport industry this highlights the critical need to accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles.

In its report the UNEP analyses the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil.

It finds current pledges would only achieve a 10% reduction in global emissions by 2035 making the 1.5°C target impossible.

The UNEP report projects warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C is more likely based on current policies.

To counter this, Climate Analytics states that global emissions must fall by 20% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels followed by an 11% annual reduction through the 2030s.

This level of reduction would require a rapid scaling of carbon removal and other technologies like electrification across all sectors, with transport being a primary focus.

The divergence in these assessments creates a complex landscape for automotive manufacturers and supply chain partners planning long-term investment in EV technology and infrastructure.

The risk of climate overshoot

The potential to overshoot the 1.5°C target, even temporarily, is a growing concern.

António Guterres, the UN's Secretary-General, has acknowledged this reality while stressing the need to minimise its extent and duration.

"The 1.5°C limit of global warming is a red line for humanity. It must be kept within reach. Yet the hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees," he says.

"Science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit is inevitable. We need a paradigm shift to limit this overshoot's magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down."

Scientists have identified several climate tipping points that could be triggered by rising temperatures, including the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, describes overshooting 1.5°C as "a woeful political failure" that will bring increased damages and tipping point risks.

The difference between scenarios is stark.

According to research, warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C could translate to an additional 10cm of sea level rise by 2100 exposing 10.4 million more people to flooding.

Battery and renewable technology as a solution

Climate Analytics points to the rapid advancements in renewable energy and battery technology as a basis for optimism.

These developments are central to the feasibility of a widespread shift to electric vehicles.

Neil Grant, Senior Expert at Climate Analytics, notes that while the last five years have seen delays in climate action they have also seen renewables and batteries shatter records globally.

This progress in battery storage and renewable energy generation directly enables the scaling of the EV market.

The report calls for an even faster scaling of renewable energy climate technology and electrification across all sectors particularly in transport heating and heavy industry.

While global stocktakes show varied progress among G20 economies the remarkable growth of renewables in countries like China which may see its emissions peak earlier than expected driven by this expansion could offer a blueprint for others.