Autonomous Cars Evolve: IDTechEx Analyses Progress
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has provided a standardised classification for vehicle autonomy, ranging from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (fully autonomous in all conditions without human intervention). These definitions help distinguish between the various levels of automation and their real-world capabilities.
IDTechEx's latest report, "Autonomous Vehicles Market 2025-2045: Robotaxis, Autonomous Cars, Sensors", analyses the key players in the field and forecasts major advancements in vehicle autonomy over the next two decades.
Transitioning from Level 2+ to Level 3
The shift from Level 2+ to Level 3 autonomy represents a significant milestone in automated driving technology. Level 2+ allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel in specific conditions but still requires constant road monitoring.
Level 3, however, marks a pivotal change. In certain scenarios, drivers can take their hands and eyes off the road.
This shift means that liability for accidents moves from the driver to the vehicle manufacturer. Automotive OEMs must, therefore, be confident in their technology to ensure liability risks do not outweigh potential revenue gains from Level 3 adoption.
Manufacturers' challenge is to balance supervision and functionality. While Level 2+ enables hands-free driving at normal highway speeds, it demands driver attention. Level 3, on the other hand, offers eyes-off driving, but currently, its availability is restricted to low-speed driving on motorways, limiting its broader appeal.
Global progress in vehicle autonomy
Today, Level 2 automation is widely available worldwide, with nearly all major manufacturers offering it in their vehicles. However, there is now a growing push towards higher levels of automation.
- Level 2+ is legal in the US without regulatory barriers and according to IDTechEx research, Ford has already deployed Level 2+ vehicles in the United Kingdom.
- Level 3 technology is already in use in the US states of California and Nevada, as well as in Germany and it could be expanded to UK roads by 2026.
- Level 4 (robotaxis) is operational in multiple regions, including the US states of California, Texas and Arizona and Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.
Key Players in Level 2+ and above automation
IDTechEx's report identifies leading players in the autonomous vehicle industry, including Honda, Mercedes and BMW, all actively integrating Level 2+ and higher automation features.
Honda: Safety-First approach
Honda has emphasised safety and driver assistance with features like:
- Automated emergency braking
- Adaptive cruise control
Mercedes and BMW: Leading the way in Level 3
Mercedes has led in Level 3 deployment with its flagship S-Class, equipped with 'Drive Pilot' technology.
Currently operational in the US states of California, Nevada and Germany, Drive Pilot was originally limited to speeds of 60 kph, but it was updated in September 2024 to increase its speed limit to 95 kph.
Similarly, BMW's 7 Series received Level 3 approval in 2023, with its rollout beginning in Germany in 2024. The competition between BMW and Mercedes highlights the increasing viability of Level 3 automation in the premium car market.
The future of vehicle autonomy: IDTechEx predictions
IDTechEx forecasts that Level 2+ will remain the most widely adopted form of automation in the short term, given its feasibility and fewer liability concerns for manufacturers.
Meanwhile, Level 3 adoption will depend on legislative changes and manufacturers' willingness to assume liability risks. As regulatory frameworks evolve and technology matures, Level 3 may become more widespread, but Level 2+ remains the preferred choice for most automakers.
As automation advances, the global automotive industry is moving closer to a future where fully autonomous vehicles may become a reality. The coming years will determine how quickly higher levels of automation — from Level 3 to Level 5 — can transition from experimental technology to widespread consumer adoption.
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